The first major of the season's upon us, and it’s shaping up to be exciting, back to 4v4 and consolidating the talent into even less player slots has brought the league much closer to a state of parity. Let’s break down the first round matches, and what each team needs to win, including the teams with the loser and winner bracket byes. I will note I’m fairly new to CoD competitive, so I hope to provide some good analysis, but also to provide some solid baseline ideas for other new fans to look out for.
Match 1: Seattle Surge vs Florida Mutineers
Seattle is an interesting team, built with some players who have the highest potential, but also the lowest lows, Octane, Gunless, and Prestinni all can be the best at any given tournament, they can all also underperform if they’re off their game. Loony brings a bit of evenness and mental game to the equation though, helping with some fairly emotional teammates. In general we have seen an underperformance from Octane compared to what he’s proven capable of in the past. So with a lot of potential inconsistencies, what can the team do to win? I think the key is Prestinni, a player who can be absolutely dominant when heated up, but can have rough games when he seems to get behind, if Seattle can really keep Prestinni gassed up, his absurdly aggressive routes can really open up the rest of the team to shine.
Florida on the other hand, is shocking to see in the first round of the loser’s bracket, not inconsistent at all, just generally underperforming, I think they have a decently high ceiling, but they don’t seem to be able to all hit it at once. Most of the players are playing fairly average games, and take turns having a great performance, with two exceptions. Owakening has most of the great performance share, picking right back up from last year, but Neptune also can’t be ignored, this late Halo superstar has transitioned well, proving he belongs in the league, and showing some definite glimmers of a monster rookie year in the same vein as Shottzy and Simp, although it remains to be seen if he’ll get there. Florida’s key is just to play to the level they are all capable of, especially Cesar “Skyz” Bueno, if he really invests in his game and hits his stride, Owakening and Neptune will get the help they need, and Slacked can be more rewarded by doing the dirty work by having his teammates embrace the opportunities he creates.
So when matched up in this specific way, what does each team need to do in order to win? For Seattle, it’s too take a respawn game type, they’ve proven to be most effective in SnD, even in their lost matches they keep it pretty close, Crossroads Hardpoint specifically would be a great opening map for them, and if they can take it I can see a clean 3-0 or 3-1. For Florida: Don’t let Prestinni heat up and make room for Gunless to pop off, he’s Seattle's best slayer and AR, and don’t let this get to game 5, where I would give the edge to the Surge.
Prediction: Florida 3-1 Seattle
Match 2: Toronto Ultra vs London Royal Ravens
Toronto Ultra is the best team in the bottom 4 in my opinion, they’re a team that can definitely punch up, and should probably be hovering a little higher up in the rankings by the end of the season. If you’re a Toronto fan, what you really want to see is the C-team rising up to their potential, Cammy and CleanX have an incredible peak, and if they hit their stride a loser’s bracket run is a very realistic possibility. Bance also has a great peak performance level, but can also really hold that role-player style down, leaving room for the rest of his room to pop off, which is I think what he is most important for with the C-team behind him. Methodz needs to play more aggressively and with the team, he sometimes gets left behind in the game, cleaning up, but all too late, despite having a decent clutch factor and brain for the game. This is the team that feels the most like a cohesive unit of these first round loser’s bracket competitors.
London Royal Ravens on the other hand feels a little bit messy, two members, Dylan and Seany, have been teaming for a while, but haven’t seemed able to hit the same peaks they did last year with Skrapz and Wuskin holding down the slaying for the squad. With the added Alexx who has shown a few flashes of brilliance, like the ability to just lay down and get all 4 kills in an S&D round, which shows a pretty cool head, and I’m not joking here, it was impressive discipline. Rounding out the team is 2013 World Champion Parasite, a player who is known for both having all the game skill needed to keep up all these years later, but also an abrasive personality that has repeatedly kept him from getting back onto a top team. What I really want to see from this team is a shift in pacing and strategy behind Parasite, he’s playing pretty well and has almost more years of meaningful pro experience than the rest of the team combined, he needs to step up and lead this team, his young gun teammates have potential, but need to be moulded and built up into their capabilities.
Against each-other specifically, I’m looking for London to take the control map, and for Toronto to take both the S&D games if it comes to it, leaving the hardpoints as the contentious maps. For Toronto, they just need to force a game 5, win either hardpoint and the game 2 S&D then shut the match out. For London taking both hardpoints and the control lets them end it in 4 games, but if Toronto takes a hardpoint, they need to clutch up in either of the S&D games. I slightly edge Toront, because they only need to win 1 of the two contested hardpoint maps and hold down their expected wins, whereas the Ravens need to win two contested maps while holding down the control.
Prediction: Toronto 3-2 London
Match 3: LA Thieves vs LA Guerillas
The LA Thieves are kind of like Seattle, a lot of inconsistent players with a rock, this time in the form of Slasher. Kenny, Temp, and TJHaly have a massive potential, but can also peeter out if they never get their engines started, TJ especially though has shown peaks that are absolutely unreal, especially his S&D where he went 12-0 while staying aggressive and efficient, picking up top damage marks along the way. The one thing that I need from this team is a bit more speed from Slasher, he has very low engagements in a lot of matches, and even though he wins the majority of those engagements, I just want to see him pick up more, trade out for his aggressive teammates more to create space. I also need to see the leadership shine through, it’s tricky to help players get simultaneously staying aggressive while playing safely and efficiently, if Slasher can get everybody else on the same consistent page, this team can be at the top.
For the Guerrillas, I think we’re seeing a team that has been able to punch up and be more consistent than some of the other teams that we expect to have higher average performances, like Florida and Toronto. What we can really see from this squad is game knowledge and smart plays, they have a lot of potential to be able to win the map, even if the other team measures slightly higher on the skill scale overall. Vivid is the player I’m most looking at to clutch up and bring the game winning plays on the back of the space created by his subs playing in ways that can really scramble their opponents. Apathy in particular seems to have the ability to create space and zones of contention that other teams just have to deal with or work around.
This is an interesting matchup, because while I do favor the Thieves, especially with how great TJ is playing right now, and the high ceiling of the rest of the team, I could also see Guerrillas pulling out the win too. It’s hard to point out any game types that I want to see either team take, as neither seems to have a particular strength or weakness, and is capable of taking any map from each other. I would expect this to be fairly scrappy, or for one team to pick up steam and 3-0, and I’ll go so far as to commit to that in this city battle.
Prediction: LA Thieves 3-0 LA Guerrillas
Match 4: Optic Chicago vs NY Subliners
Chicago and NY have been by far the most exciting teams to watch in the first stage, each team has 3 members in the top 10 k/d club across the whole league, 75% of this match are top slayers so far. For Chicago, we’re seeing a wonderful scenario for them where Scump is the lowest k/d on the team, and when a player of his caliber is at the bottom of the statistical side of the team, it means the rest of the team are playing like monsters. Dashy and Formal are some of the best AR players in the league, Dashy I think is in second, despite being a flex. Meanwhile Envoy is playing an extremely flank based game, built around disrupting their opponents so that the rest of the team has room to fry. Optic have sometimes struggled to keep up with other teams however, and definitely seem to lose sight of the objective at times, instead worried about slaying out to create space, instead of just taking the target in front of them. They do seem to have shored up in S&D a bit, and their respawn game type losses are pretty close, so they have a decent shot of winning against any team, especially as they develop their strategies.
The NY Subliners have been a fantastic surprise, especially having lost star player Zooma to retirement just before the season started, and having rookie import Hydra unable to come and play due to visa issues (which have now been resolved). Clayster has been leading this team with something to prove, picking up tons of kills, maintaining comparatively low deaths, and getting aggressive, with a lot of engagements despite being a main AR, he is the best in his role thus far in Cold War, and every other AR needs to catch up. The two replacements for Zooma and Hydra, Asim and Diamondcon have also been fantastic, Asim looking like one of the best players in the game, and Diamond proving to not be in the rough at all, putting up great stats and having a solid brain for the game, with a lot of room to grow in this rookie year under Clay. Speaking of room to grow is final member, and the only original starter Mack, who has not been able to get into the same form that he had been in during Modern Warfare, is he just a slow starter though, or is the difference between the two games and rulesets just showing his limitations? For now I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, we know what he may be capable of, so hopefully he gets a chance to show it. All these players should be playing with a lot of intensity too, with Hydra coming, many may be worried about getting replaced, and will want to prove their worth.
In this matchup, if you want Chicago, you want Checkmate as a map, and to see them lock down the respawn modes, as New York has proven excellent at S&D. I think both of these teams have potential to win a major, but I think New York still needs some time to grow and click, whereas I think Chicago is more likely to hit the ground running and keep up, or be able to claw back from potential defeat with all their experience. This has potential to be the most fun match all weekend.
Prediction: Optic Chicago 3-1 NY Subliners.
The Loser Bracket Bye Teams
Paris Legion
Paris is a team that is either punching up, or very underrated, for now I’m favoring them being a team that is overperforming, but they could prove me wrong this weekend with a good performance. Fire has been growing quickly as a rookie under pressure, and the other three members, Aqua, Classic, and Skrapz, have a lot of experience and the ability to play at decent peaks. This team still needs to click more, but they have an impressive map count considering the lack of baseline synergy. Their biggest weakness is S&D, where they barely see the word “win” at the end. They actually match up against Florida better than their other potential first opponents, whereas Seattle can likely take both S&Ds and any single hardpoint and win the series. If Seattle wins their first match, I expect them to beat Paris as well, Florida will be closer, although if they shore up, I think they are also favored to knock Paris out too.
Minnesota Rokkr
Speaking of Paris’s S&D weakness, Minnesota are the opposite, S&D monsters, but they do have speed struggles, playing faster than fans initially expected, but still not at the same high pace as other teams. I think they are extremely unlikely to look like a bottom 4 team, but I also think they are the mid-table team least likely to win a tournament. Both Toronto and London are good match-ups for Minnesota, and I expect them to move forward through at least their first match.
The Winner Bracket Bye Teams
Dallas Empire
Reigning champion Dallas had to drop Clayster to get down to 4 players to start the season, and given how Clay is currently playing, that is a loss for Dallas. That said, Crimsix and the young guns are still an extremely threatening squad who is very likely to win this major. Huke in particular is probably the best sub in the game, maybe the best player given what we’ve heard in comms as well, he can call shots, stay calm, and outgun anybody in his path. Shottzy has been more middling, but still has moments where he shows the MVP quality that he had last year, and Crimsix is also showing moments, but definitely isn’t playing his best. Illey has struggled the most this year so far, and definitely needs to pick it up, but we know he’s capable. I would actually expect either Chicago or NY to give them a run for their money, and maybe grab the win since they’ll be feeling hot from their win the day before, especially given NY was very close to winning this matchup during league play, before being on the losing end of a rough reverse sweep loss. If either of those teams can shut down Huke, the Empire is in trouble, but if Huke goes off, well, he’s called Huke the Nuke for a reason.
Atlanta Faze
This team is really weird, you’d be crazy to not think they have the best chance of winning the major, but at the same time, they really feel like they have consistent clutch moments across the team to pick up wins, which makes you think, what happens if they can’t consistently prove to be the clutchest team in the game. Every player on this team can be top 10 in the game, but I really don’t think they’re playing to that level consistently. I do think anything short of top 3 would be a failure for this team, as they should be able to beat whichever LA team they end up facing, but don’t be surprised if they can’t secure the tournament win, as I said, I don’t think they’re always playing up to their peak capabilities, at least not all at once. Expect big numbers from Simp and a top 3 performance at the least, this is the only team that I feel secure as a lock-in to that point in the tournament. Also, be scared of this team, as I said, they are the favorites and feel like they have room to grow, and if they work at it, that means they could get even better.
My Predicted Placements for the Stage 1 Major
1. Atlanta Faze
2. NY Subliners
3. Chicago Optic
4. Dallas Empire
5/6. LA Thieves/Minnesota Rokkr
7/8. Florida Mutineers/LA Guerrillas
9/10. Paris Legion/Toronto Ultra
11/12. Seattle Surge/London Royal Ravens